Analysis of the Impact of 12% VAT Implementation on the Indonesian Economy: An Empirical Study of the U-Shaped Impact Phenomenon on Public Purchasing Power in the January-June 2025 Period

  • Authors

  • Affiliations

  • Published

  • Section Articles

  • DOI https://doi.org/10.56347/jle.v4i2.342

  • Issue
Views icon

0

Views

Downloads icon

0

Downloads

Altmetrics icon

Altmetrics

Abstract

This study examines the economic impacts of Indonesia's 12% Value Added Tax (VAT) during January-June 2025 using a Difference-in-Differences (DiD) approach. The VAT increase from 11% to 12%, effective January 1, 2025, aims to boost state revenue and support post-pandemic economic recovery. Analysis draws on time series data from Statistics Indonesia (BPS), Bank Indonesia, and the Ministry of Finance, along with household surveys and MSME data. Results show that the 12% VAT added 0.45 percentage points to national inflation, with manufacturing bearing the largest burden at 0.18 percentage points. A striking U-shaped pattern emerged in purchasing power effects: middle-income groups (quintile 3) suffered the steepest decline of 3.4%, while low and high-income groups experienced smaller reductions. The VAT exhibits regressive characteristics, pushing the Gini coefficient from 0.381 to 0.394 and raising poverty rates from 9.54% to 9.78%—forcing approximately 640,000 people below the poverty line. While state revenue increased by 18.7%, mitigation interventions worth 0.3-0.5% of GDP became necessary. The study recommends targeted mitigation strategies: focused social compensation, revised VAT-exempt goods lists, and integrated progressive tax reforms.

References

  1. Agustina, N., & Hartono, D. (2022). Dampak perubahan tarif pajak penghasilan badan dan pajak pertambahan nilai di Indonesia. Ekuitas (Jurnal Ekonomi dan Keuangan), 6(4), 456-475. https://doi.org/10.24034/j25485024.y2022.v6.i4.5359
  2. Alfiyah, N., & Latifah, S. (2017). Pengaruh pelaksanaan kebijakan sunset policy, tax amnesty, dan sanksi pajak terhadap kepatuhan wajib pajak orang pribadi. Jurnal Reviu Akuntansi dan Keuangan, 7(2), 1081-1090. https://doi.org/10.22219/jrak.v7i2.21
  3. Annisaa, M., & Nuryanah, S. (2023). Evaluasi manajemen perpajakan atas pajak pertambahan nilai (studi kasus pada perusahaan start-up X). Journal of Economics and Business UBS, 12(4), 2532-2549. https://doi.org/10.52644/joeb.v12i4.408
  4. Djufri, D. (2022). Dampak pengenaan PPN 11% terhadap pelaku dunia usaha sesuai UU No. 7 Tahun 2021 tentang harmonisasi peraturan perpajakan di Indonesia. Journal of Social Research, 1(5), 391-404. https://doi.org/10.55324/josr.v1i5.106
  5. Fadhiilah, A., & Rachmawati, N. (2024). Apakah promosi penjualan melalui media sosial dan potongan harga memengaruhi niat beli konsumen dengan kenaikan tarif pajak penambahan nilai sebagai variabel moderasi? Jurnal Akuntansi dan Keuangan, 13(1), 90-106. https://doi.org/10.36080/jak.v13i1.2818
  6. Fitriani, A., Putri, C. F., Fionasari, D., Harahap, P. D. S., & Hasibuan, S. A. (2025). Analisis dampak kenaikan tarif pajak pertambahan nilai (PPN) 11% terhadap PT Sari Kencana. Jurnal Akuntansi Audit dan Perpajakan Indonesia (JAAPI), 6(1), 709-715. https://doi.org/10.32696/jaapi.v6i1.4181
  7. Gunawan, F., & Sofiani, V. (2023). Pengaruh kenaikan tarif pajak pertambahan nilai (PPN) dan biaya bahan baku terhadap omset penjualan pada PT Buana Raya Lestari. Journal of Economics and Business UBS, 12(5), 2706-2721. https://doi.org/10.52644/joeb.v12i5.469
  8. Gultom, Y., Hidayati, R., Pratama, K., & Wijaya, S. (2022). Alternatif pengenaan pajak pertambahan nilai atas beras. Jurnalku, 2(4), 552-562. https://doi.org/10.54957/jurnalku.v2i4.336
  9. Hajatina, H., & Hasanah, U. (2024). Analisis dampak kenaikan tarif pajak pertambahan nilai (PPN) terhadap perilaku konsumsi dan kesejahteraan masyarakat di Indonesia. Jurnal Manajemen dan Bisnis, 3(2), 36-51. https://doi.org/10.36490/jmdb.v3i2.1452
  10. Konsultan ISO. (2025, January 15). Dampak penerapan PPN 12% bagi perekonomian. https://konsultaniso.web.id/ilmu-manajemen-bisnis/dampak-penerapan-ppn-12-bagi-perekonomian/
  11. Kurnaini, A. F., & Rahmawati, I. D. (2024). Analisis dampak kenaikan tarif pajak pertambahan nilai (PPN) terhadap daya beli masyarakat di Kabupaten Sidoarjo. Masip: Jurnal Manajemen Administrasi Bisnis dan Publik Terapan, 2(3), 45-56. https://doi.org/10.59061/masip.v2i3.737
  12. Liyana, N. (2021). Menelaah rencana kenaikan tarif PPN berdasarkan bukti empiris serta dampaknya secara makro ekonomi. Jurnal Pajak Indonesia (Indonesian Tax Review), 5(2), 124-135. https://doi.org/10.31092/jpi.v5i2.1394
  13. Novianto, R., Ramadhan, R., Azzahra, S., & Irawan, F. (2023). Menelaah kenaikan tarif pajak pertambahan nilai ditinjau dari asas keadilan. Jurnalku, 3(2), 187-195. https://doi.org/10.54957/jurnalku.v3i2.454
  14. Portal Informasi Indonesia. (2025, January 10). Strategi dongkrak penerimaan, jaga ekonomi tetap stabil. Indonesia.go.id. https://indonesia.go.id/kategori/editorial/8862/strategi-dongkrak-penerimaan-jaga-ekonomi-tetap-stabil?lang=1
  15. Pradana, R. (2022). Problematika pemulihan ekonomi nasional pasca pandemi dengan pemberlakuan kenaikan tarif PPN. Jurnal Asosiasi Pengajar Hukum Tata Negara Hukum Administrasi Negara (JAPHTN-HAN), 1(2), 1-15. https://doi.org/10.55292/japhtnhan.v1i2.33
  16. Putri, I. (2024). Kenaikan PPN 12% dan dampaknya terhadap ekonomi. Jurnal Ilmiah Manajemen Ekonomi & Akuntansi (MEA), 8(2), 934-944. https://doi.org/10.31955/mea.v8i2.4077
  17. Putri, V., & Subandoro, A. (2022). Analisis pengaruh kenaikan tarif PPN 11% terhadap penjualan pada PT X. Jurnal Revenue: Jurnal Ilmiah Akuntansi, 3(1), 54-58. https://doi.org/10.46306/rev.v3i1.95
  18. Regyna, T., Agustina, D., & Pramadista, F. (2022). Dampak daya beli konsumen kendaraan bermotor terhadap pajak pertambahan nilai (PPN) dan pajak penjualan atas barang mewah (PPnBM). OSF Preprints. https://doi.org/10.31219/osf.io/d56eu
  19. Santosa, D., & Sesung, R. (2021). Reformasi hukum perpajakan dalam upaya meningkatkan penerimaan dan kepatuhan wajib pajak. Perspektif, 26(2), 110-119. https://doi.org/10.30742/perspektif.v26i2.787
  20. Sarlini, H., Hutabarat, Y., Rahmayaani, E., & Pangestoeti, W. (2025). Analisis pengaruh kenaikan PPN terhadap konsumsi barang kebutuhan sekunder oleh masyarakat kelas menengah di Indonesia. JRME: Journal of Research in Management and Economics, 2(3), 566-574. https://doi.org/10.61722/jrme.v2i3.4860
  21. Siregar, K., & Budiarto, M. (2022). Barang kebutuhan pokok dan jasa-jasa tertentu menjadi barang dan jasa kena pajak di dalam UU HPP: Meninjau penyebab dan dampak. Jurnal Pajak Indonesia (Indonesian Tax Review), 6(2), 397-409. https://doi.org/10.31092/jpi.v6i2.1855
  22. Tarmizi, M. (2023). Peningkatan tarif PPN Indonesia: Dampak sosial ekonomi dan potensi yang belum terserap. Jurnal Ekonomi Indonesia, 12(1), 55-68. https://doi.org/10.52813/jei.v12i1.169
  23. Tempo. (2025, January 8). Implementasi PPN 12 persen, dampak pada inflasi bersifat temporer. Tempo.co. https://www.tempo.co/info-tempo/implementasi-ppn-12-persen-dampak-pada-inflasi-bersifat-temporer-1186084
  24. Universitas Negeri Semarang. (2025, January). Dampak kenaikan pajak pertambahan nilai 12% terhadap tingkat konsumsi masyarakat Indonesia. KIMEFE UNNES. https://sites.unnes.ac.id/kimefe/2025/01/dampak-kenaikan-pajak-pertambahan-nilai-12-terhadap-tingkat-konsumsi-masyarakat-indonesia/
  25. Warman, W., Komariyah, L., & Kaltsum, K. (2023). Konsep umum evaluasi kebijakan. Jurnal Ilmu Manajemen dan Pendidikan (JIMPIAN), 3(Special Issue), 25-32. https://doi.org/10.30872/jimpian.v3ise.2912
  26. Wesley, C., & Sitompul, G. (2023). Pengaruh kebijakan kenaikan PPN 11 persen dan penagihan pajak dalam memenuhi kewajiban perpajakan pelaku usaha. El-Mal: Jurnal Kajian Ekonomi & Bisnis Islam, 5(3), 1625-1642. https://doi.org/10.47467/elmal.v5i3.5711
  27. Yani, R. E., Simandalahi, E., & Nasution, A. R. (2024). Pengaruh PPN (pajak pertambahan nilai) terhadap pendapatan nasional. Eksis: Jurnal Ilmiah Ekonomi dan Bisnis, 15(1), 30-36.
  28. Yuniawaty, Y. (2025). Kenaikan tarif pajak pertambahan nilai (PPN) dikaitkan dengan kemanfaatan hukum. Unes Journal of Swara Justisia, 8(4), 947-985. https://doi.org/10.31933/jn26mx61.

Author Biographies

How to Cite

Putri, W. F. S., Oroh, O., & Maulana, D. (2025). Analysis of the Impact of 12% VAT Implementation on the Indonesian Economy: An Empirical Study of the U-Shaped Impact Phenomenon on Public Purchasing Power in the January-June 2025 Period. Journal of Law and Economics, 4(2), 165-181. https://doi.org/10.56347/jle.v4i2.342

Article Details

  • Volume: 4
  • Issue: 2
  • Pages: 165-181
  • Published:
  • Section: Articles
  • Copyright: 2025
  • ISSN: 2963-7937

License

Articles in this journal are published under the Creative Commons Attribution Licence (CC-BY 4.0). This means that users may share and adapt the articles published on this website in a reasonable manner, but they must give appropriate credit to the creator and indicate the changes they have made. Users must not apply additional restrictions, but must publish the work under the same license (CC-BY 4.0).

Article Statistics

  • Submitted:
  • Published:
  • Views: 0
  • Downloads: 0
Similar Articles

Similar Articles

Discover other articles with topics similar to what you're currently reading. Find more references and expand your knowledge base.

Related Articles You May Be Interested In

More Similar Articles

Korelasi Integritas Akhlak Pelaku Ekonomi dengan...

Damanhuri, T. Lembong Misbah, Syarifuddin Hasyim, Wolly Mistiar

Vol. 2 No. 2 (2023): NOVEMBER 2023
Analysis of Unregistered Child Marriage Practices Through...

Riska Riska, Sri Pramudya Wardhani

Vol. 4 No. 2 (2025): NOVEMBER
Evaluasi Efisiensi Ekonomi dan Dampak Investasi dari...

Cut Keumala Sari

Vol. 2 No. 2 (2023): NOVEMBER 2023
Peranan Koperasi dalam Rangka Mensejahterahkan Anggota...

Nuraini, M Djamil HS

Vol. 1 No. 2 (2022): NOVEMBER 2022
Most read articles by the same author(s)

Related Articles